The impact of uncertainty in urbanization rates and hydropower energy consumption on the ecological footprint in Iran

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Economics Department, Faculty of Management and Economics, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran

2 Department of Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran

Abstract

The ecological footprint is an efficient tool to assess the pressures exerted on ecosystems and the environment. Given its importance, this study investigates the impact of uncertainty in urbanization rates and hydropower energy consumption on the ecological footprint in Iran. It also examines the effects of natural resource rents, per capita income, and industrial production on the ecological footprint. For this purpose, a fuzzy regression model was employed to identify these impacts during the 1970–2022 period. The fuzzy regression model calculated the intensity of influence for each factor affecting the ecological footprint using centers and fuzzy left and right spreads. The right fuzzy spread results indicate that the effects of urbanization rates, hydropower energy consumption, natural resource rents, and per capita income on Iran's ecological footprint, given a 0.9 membership degree, are 2.851, 1.244, 1.898, and 0.657, respectively. This demonstrates the significant influence of these variables on the ecological footprint. Although hydropower energy consumption reduces greenhouse gas emissions, dam construction damages habitats. Urbanization growth, with a coefficient of 2.851, is the primary driver of increased ecological footprint and requires the adoption of green technologies. Natural resource rents, with a coefficient of 1.898, also have a significant impact and must be managed efficiently. The impact of increased per capita income varies based on consumption patterns. Furthermore, industrial production, with its high energy consumption, exacerbates the ecological footprint, emphasizing the need for cleaner technologies.

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History

  • Receive Date: 22 December 2024
  • Revise Date: 17 May 2025
  • Accept Date: 19 May 2025

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