The Power of Beliefs and Social Pressure of Powerless in the Continuation of Destructive Economic Activities and the Urmia Lake Crisis

Extended Abstract
Introduction
The critical condition of Lake Urmia and the tangible severity of its deterioration over the past decade, coupled with civil society's relative silence on the issue, raise an important question: why has there been no effective public response to mitigate the crisis? Furthermore, what consequences might this preference distortion and spiral of silence entail for society and the government?
Regrettably, many studies and policy proposals grounded in market fundamentalism offered as solutions to water scarcity and pollution have overlooked the underlying theoretical assumptions of this approach and its potentially adverse consequences for Iranian society and the environment.
In the absence of a development-oriented government and under conditions of market exploitation of the country's water resources where individuals and corporations operate according to short-term, profit-maximizing logics the activation of demanding civil institutions and the adoption of commons-based water governance emerge as viable alternatives.
Research background
Individuals employ mental models to interpret the world around them. Some of these models are culturally embedded and context-specific, yielding divergent understandings of how the world "functions." Such mental models are shaped by the prevailing reward and punishment systems within a society. It is within this framework that preference distortion, the propagation of overt falsehoods, and the concealment of facts occur. When preference distortion becomes generalized, it reshapes collective perceptions and generates numerous unintended negative social consequences. This phenomenon confines society within a circle of lies, fostering short-sightedness, conservatism, and most critically a spiral of silence that compels individuals to remain mute in the face of adverse events, thereby exacerbating societal problems.
This article contends that an inappropriate reward and punishment system governing environmental conduct has engendered a dominant mental model in Iranian society. This model has fostered conservatism, preference distortion, a culture of dissimulation, and a spiral of silence all of which have accelerated and deepened the environmental crisis surrounding Lake Urmia.
Objective
Throughout human history, communal rights have typically emerged from the demands of citizens and civil institutions. Accordingly, this study seeks to stimulate public will and mobilize civil society to hold government and market institutions accountable for environmental protection and the restoration of Lake Urmia.
Research Method
This study adopts the methodology of the art of economics. Economists commonly distinguish between two categories: positive economics (what is) and normative economics (what ought to be). However, the status of applied economics often termed the art of economics remains ambiguous within this dichotomy. The art of economics constitutes a distinct category: it is neither purely positive nor purely normative.
Economic development trajectories vary across societies, reflecting diverse cultural heritages and distinct geographical, physical, and economic conditions. While empirical research in positive economics aims to test whether a theory may be provisionally accepted, such experimental validation is often ill-suited for addressing complex real-world problems. Meanwhile, the art of economics relieves normative economics of the burden of prescribing policy details, enabling a deeper inquiry into which goals are appropriate for economic policy. Specifically, the art of economics accepts a set of normatively defined objectives and examines how to achieve them in practice, drawing on insights from positive economics.
Results and Discussion
Key findings of this research include the following:

Proposed solutions to the water crisis and the degradation of Lake Urmia have, at times, served the interests of narrow elite groups rather than the public good.
The water issue in Iran has not yet until very recently, and arguably still today crystallized into a fully socialized problem with explicit political and environmental dimensions. The politicization of environmental activism has engendered societal conservatism, preference distortion, and a culture of dissimulation. This collective denial has intensified the Lake Urmia crisis.
Rent-seeking behavior, extractive mining industries, and traditional subsistence agriculture have collectively constituted a structural platform for the Lake Urmia crisis. The determination of mining interests to construct dams rivals that of the agricultural sector.
To mislead public opinion, the actual water consumption of rent-seeking industries is systematically underreported.
The short-sightedness of an engineering-dominated governance approach, combined with a society oriented toward individualistic and immediate gains, has precipitated the current crisis.
Delegating water resource management entirely to market mechanisms constitutes a dead end, leading to social fragmentation and political destabilization.
Given the comparative inefficacy of both state and market mechanisms in managing water resources, activating assertive civil institutions and transitioning toward commons-based water governance represent feasible and necessary pathways forward.

Conclusion
The study concludes that:

The penalization of environmental civil activism has reinforced a spiral of silence and entrenched a culture of dissimulation, thereby accelerating and deepening environmental crises.
Rent-seeking interests have played a decisive role in shaping an ineffective reward and punishment system for environmental behavior.
In the absence of governmental and market accountability characterized by short-sighted, absentee, and bureaucratic governance; rent-seeking industrial and mining sectors; and traditional subsistence agriculture the demands of civil institutions constitute a foundational principle for change. Historical experience demonstrates that the advancement of social rights has consistently emerged from civil society mobilization. The same logic applies to resolving Iran's environmental crisis and restoring Lake Urmia.
Market fundamentalist solutions to water management constitute a pathway to further crisis deepening, particularly in the absence of a strong, development-oriented state capable of regulating market exploitation. Moreover, water waste and pollution precipitate not only ecological but also moral degradation within society. Therefore, public and commons-based water governance is strongly recommended.