کارآفرینی، ردپای اکولوژیکی و سازگاری با تغییر اقلیم در کشورهای عضو (WEF): رویکرد رگرسیون انتقال ملایم پانلی

Abstract
Introduction
Given the far-reaching consequences of climate change for human societies, this study investigates the interplay between entrepreneurship, ecological footprint, and climate change adaptation. Specifically, it examines the nonlinear dynamics among these variables across member countries of the World Economic Forum (WEF) over the period 2008–2019, employing the Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model. Linearity tests confirm the presence of significant nonlinear relationships, justifying the use of a regime-switching framework. For each transition variable, a specification featuring two logistic transition functions with two threshold parameters—corresponding to a three-regime model—was found to best capture the underlying nonlinearities.
The empirical results reveal that both the entrepreneurship index and the ecological footprint exert nonlinear effects on climate change adaptation. Notably, the majority of countries are situated in the second (efficiency-oriented) regime, indicating that they possess the foundational capabilities necessary to potentially advance toward the third (innovation-oriented) regime. Crucially, the findings demonstrate that higher levels of entrepreneurial activity and a lower ecological footprint are both associated with enhanced climate change adaptation outcomes. These results suggest that fostering entrepreneurial ecosystems—particularly those oriented toward green innovation and sustainable technology development—can significantly strengthen national capacities to adapt to climate change
Introduction
Climate change stands as one of the most pressing challenges of the 21st century, with far-reaching consequences for both natural ecosystems and human societies. Largely driven by anthropogenic activities—particularly fossil fuel combustion and the consequent rise in greenhouse gas emissions—it has significantly disrupted the planet’s ecological balance. Member countries of the World Economic Forum (WEF), which collectively account for a substantial share of global economic output, are not only major contributors to emissions but are also increasingly vulnerable to climate-related risks. This dual role underscores the urgent need for strategic, evidence-based approaches to mitigate environmental impacts and strengthen adaptive capacity.
Entrepreneurship occupies a complex and dual position in this context. While conventional entrepreneurial ventures may intensify environmental degradation through heightened resource use and emissions, green or sustainable entrepreneurship offers a pathway toward ecological resilience by fostering innovation in clean technologies, circular business models, and low-carbon solutions. The ecological footprint—a widely used metric of human demand on nature—further highlights the challenge: WEF member countries generally exhibit above-average footprints, reflecting patterns of high energy consumption, material-intensive lifestyles, and unsustainable production systems.
Effective climate change adaptation demands transformative shifts in both production and consumption paradigms. In this transition, sustainable entrepreneurship can serve as a catalyst—particularly through the development of green enterprises in sectors such as renewable energy, sustainable agriculture, and eco-efficient infrastructure. However, the scalability and impact of such initiatives hinge on supportive macro-level conditions, including coherent environmental policies, sustained investment in clean technologies, and robust institutional frameworks that incentivize sustainability.
To capture the nuanced and potentially nonlinear dynamics among these factors, this study employs the Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model. The analysis incorporates a comprehensive set of indicators, including the entrepreneurship index, ecological footprint index, energy intensity index, Legatum Prosperity Index (as a proxy for socioeconomic development and governance quality), and the state fragility index (to account for institutional stability and resilience capacity).
Methods and Materials
This study is applied in nature with respect to its objectives and analytical in its approach to data analysis. The statistical population comprises member countries of the World Economic Forum (WEF), classified into three distinct groups—resource-driven, efficiency-driven, and innovation-driven economies—based on the WEF’s Global Competitiveness Framework. This classification reflects varying stages of economic development, institutional maturity, and entrepreneurial ecosystems across the sample.
The study covers the period from 2008 to 2019, a timeframe selected primarily due to data availability and its relevance to contemporary climate and economic dynamics. To examine the complex interplay among the key variables, the research employs the Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model—a nonlinear panel data technique well-suited for capturing regime-dependent relationships and smooth transitions across heterogeneous economies.
The central research question guiding this investigation is: Does a significant nonlinear relationship exist between climate change adaptation, entrepreneurship, and the ecological footprint among WEF member countries? By addressing this question, the study aims to uncover how the impact of entrepreneurship and environmental pressure on adaptation capacity varies across different development regimes
Results and Discussion
The estimation results confirm the presence of a nonlinear relationship among the core variables of the study-entrepreneurship, ecological footprint, and climate change adaptation. For each transition variable, two threshold values were identified, supporting a three-regime smooth transition structure.
Notably, the estimated slope (or transition speed) parameters reveal that climate change adaptation is considerably more responsive to changes in entrepreneurship (transition speed = 21.1871) than to fluctuations in the ecological footprint (transition speed = 9.8720). This suggests that entrepreneurial dynamics exert a sharper and more immediate influence on adaptive capacity across different development regimes.
This finding is consistent with green entrepreneurship theory, which emphasizes the role of entrepreneurial activity as a catalyst for systemic transformation toward a low-carbon, climate-resilient economy. It implies that fostering entrepreneurial ecosystems—particularly those oriented toward sustainability and innovation—can accelerate progress in climate change adaptation more effectively than focusing solely on reducing ecological pressure
Regime Analysis Based on the Entrepreneurship Variable
The nonlinear relationship between entrepreneurship and climate change adaptation varies significantly across three distinct regimes defined by the level of entrepreneurial activity:

First Regime (Low Entrepreneurship): In this stage, entrepreneurship exhibits a neutral or slightly negative effect on climate change adaptation. This suggests that entrepreneurial initiatives are predominantly driven by short-term economic motives, with limited integration of environmental considerations or sustainability principles.
Second Regime (Moderate Entrepreneurship): A positive and statistically significant relationship emerges, indicating a turning point where entrepreneurship begins to contribute meaningfully to adaptive capacity. This shift likely reflects the growing prevalence of sustainability-oriented ventures and heightened awareness of environmental challenges among entrepreneurs and policymakers.
Third Regime (High Entrepreneurship): Entrepreneurship demonstrates a strongly positive and substantial impact on climate change adaptation. At this stage, environmental innovation becomes embedded in core business strategies, aligning with the principles of sustainable entrepreneurship theory. The findings underscore that mature entrepreneurial ecosystems can serve as powerful engines for climate resilience through green technologies, circular business models, and systemic innovation

Regime Analysis Based on the Ecological Footprint Variable
The influence of the ecological footprint on climate change adaptation also follows a nonlinear, three-regime pattern:

First Regime (Low Ecological Footprint): The impact is minimal and largely neutral, suggesting that environmental pressures have not yet reached thresholds that significantly constrain adaptive capacity. This phase typically corresponds to early stages of economic development, where resource use remains relatively modest.
Second Regime (Moderate Ecological Footprint): The relationship becomes highly nonlinear, reflecting a critical transitional phase. Countries in this regime may be actively grappling with the trade-offs between growth and sustainability, potentially initiating policy reforms or green investments to steer development toward more resilient pathways.
Third Regime (High Ecological Footprint): A pronounced negative effect emerges, signaling that excessive environmental degradation severely undermines climate adaptation efforts. This finding is particularly concerning, as it implies that once ecological thresholds are crossed, natural and socio-institutional systems may lose their capacity to absorb shocks. In such contexts, entrepreneurship and innovation become essential levers to reverse degradation trends and avert irreversible environmental damage.

Conclusion
The findings indicate that sustainable entrepreneurship and green innovation play a pivotal role in enhancing climate change adaptation. Policymakers should facilitate the transition from traditional to sustainable entrepreneurship by implementing targeted incentive mechanisms—such as support for clean technologies, environmental taxation, and green licensing systems. Management of the ecological footprint must also be aligned with countries’ stages of development: preventing footprint expansion should be prioritized in early development phases, whereas reducing existing footprints becomes critical in more advanced stages.
Given that most countries in the sample fall within the intermediate (efficiency-driven) regime, efficiency-oriented policies—such as improving energy productivity and scaling up renewable energy deployment—represent effective near-term strategies. The results clearly demonstrate that the relationship among entrepreneurship, ecological footprint, and climate change adaptation is complex, nonlinear, and threshold-dependent, thereby requiring differentiated policy approaches across development stages. Ultimately, successful climate change adaptation strategies must be firmly anchored in entrepreneurship and innovation to mitigate the adverse effects of environmental degradation and accelerate the transition toward sustainable development.
Acknowledgments
The authors gratefully acknowledge the insightful comments and constructive suggestions provided by the anonymous reviewers and the editorial team.