بررسی سازوکارهای رفع چالش‌های بخش محیط ‌زیست و آب ایران بر اساس سند تحول دولت مردمی

Abstract
Introduction
Water and the environment are two essential elements for human life and all living organisms. Water is the fundamental source of life, without which no form of biological existence is possible. The rapidly growing global population and rising living standards across many countries have increased the demand for groundwater for agricultural, industrial, and municipal purposes. As one of the most critical sources of water supply, groundwater faces numerous challenges arising from both natural and human-induced contaminants. Environmental and water resource issues represent some of the most significant challenges confronting Iran. Their effects have already become evident and could have irreversible consequences for the population’s quality of life and the country’s sustainable development in the near future. These challenges are further exacerbated by climate change, rapid population growth, excessive exploitation of natural resources, and inadequate water resource management.
Accordingly, this research aims to assess the challenges and mechanisms related to Iran’s environmental and water resources based on the People’s Government Transformation Document. The study seeks to identify which environmental and water-related challenges—according to expert opinion and the aforementioned document—are the most critical and should be prioritized to enable the development of effective solutions. Thus, this paper examines and ranks these challenges based on expert perspectives.
Research Method
This study aims to identify and rank the most important environmental and water-related challenges in Iran. It is applied in purpose, descriptive in nature, and survey-based in methodology. Initially, through library research, environmental and water-related challenges were extracted from the People’s Government Transformation Document. Data were then collected using questionnaires distributed to 12 experts, employing the pairwise comparison method within the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The statistical population consisted of environmental and economic specialists, including eight with master’s degrees and four with PhDs. A non-random purposive sampling technique was used to select participants. The questionnaire involved pairwise comparisons among the challenges identified in the document. All items were designed according to AHP standards, and data were analyzed using Expert Choice software—one of the most widely used tools for decision-making and prioritization analyses.
Research Findings
The study sought to weight and rank environmental challenges using the AHP method. Five main criteria and ten sub-criteria were evaluated by 12 experts. Using a 1-9 scale, experts conducted pairwise comparisons, and the resulting data were analyzed in Expert Choice. The findings revealed the following rankings for the main criteria:

“Imbalance between resources and consumption” ranked first with a weight of 0.41.
“Soil erosion, waste, and dust storm crises” ranked second with a weight of 0.17.
Two additional criteria followed with coefficients of 14 and 0.14, respectively.
“Biodiversity degradation, genetic reserve depletion, and the quantitative/qualitative decline of living organisms” ranked lowest with a weight of 0.13.

Among the ten sub-challenges, “Improper water management and low consumption productivity” received the highest coefficient (0.27), indicating its paramount importance. In contrast, “Land use change” received the lowest coefficient (0.04), reflecting its comparatively lesser significance. Overall, the findings demonstrate that from the experts’ perspective, resource management and consumption balance represent the highest-priority environmental challenge, followed by soil and waste-related crises.
Results and Discussion
This study aimed to identify and analyze major socio-cultural macro trends influencing environmental culture in Iran, drawing on insights from specialists, experts, and environmental activists. Although environmental culture can be shaped by economic, political, and technical macro trends, this research focused specifically on the social and cultural dimensions.
The results indicate that several key drivers—such as public participation in zero-waste initiatives, global urbanization, the creation of a green vision, environmental education for children, and the development of a shared environmental outlook—received high scores in terms of both impact and certainty, suggesting a strong likelihood of occurrence. Emphasizing these drivers is essential for improving environmental culture.
Additionally, certain drivers exhibited low impact but high certainty, meaning they have either already occurred or are imminent. These include declining traditional culture, population growth, changing personal habits, global environmental commitments, and the pursuit of a desired future for socio-ecological systems. Although their direct impact may be limited, their high probability of occurrence underscores their importance in shaping environmental behavior and attitudes.
Conclusion
In today’s world, environmental protection and water management have become fundamental global challenges, and Iran is no exception. This study examined and ranked the challenges outlined in the People’s Government Transformation Document and proposed suitable approaches for addressing them. The research identified five main challenges and ten sub-challenges, which were analyzed and ranked using the AHP method.
Among the main challenges, the imbalance between water resources and consumption ranked first with the highest coefficient (0.41), underscoring its significant importance. Excessive water use and inadequate conservation practices remain among the key factors contributing to Iran’s water and environmental crises. Soil erosion ranked second (0.17), followed by the imbalance between environmental protection and industrial/development activities (0.14). Air pollution in metropolitan areas ranked fourth (0.14), while biodiversity degradation and genetic resource depletion ranked fifth (0.13).
Similarly, sub-indicators were ranked based on expert evaluations using Expert Choice software. Improper water management obtained the highest coefficient (0.27), making it the most critical factor contributing to water resource decline. In contrast, land use change ranked lowest (0.04), indicating a comparatively smaller role among the sub-factors.
Overall, the findings highlight that effective water management and balanced resource consumption must be prioritized in Iran’s environmental policy agenda in order to mitigate future risks and support sustainable development.