تحلیلی بر اقتصاد محیط زیست ایران پس از جنگ

Abstract

Introduction

Examining the condition of Iran’s environmental economy in the post-war period is of critical importance, because the consequences of war are not limited to the destruction of physical infrastructure and human losses; they also impose lasting and costly pressures on the country’s natural capital. In Iran, particularly in border provinces and war-affected regions, part of the damage caused by conflict has manifested in the form of land degradation, erosion and declining soil fertility, contamination of water and soil resources, destruction of habitats, and disruption of ecosystem functions. Some of these effects persist for many years after the end of war because of the cumulative and long-term nature of environmental pollution. Accordingly, addressing environmental economics in the post-war era is essential for identifying and conceptualizing the “hidden costs” of war and transforming them into usable information for public decision-making. The significance of this issue becomes even more evident when reconstruction programs are primarily oriented toward short-term growth, production recovery, and development projects under conditions of limited resources; as a result, environmental costs are often excluded from economic calculations or pushed to the margins. This occurs despite the fact that environmental degradation directly affects the productivity of sectors such as agriculture and fisheries, increases health-related costs, threatens food security, reduces quality of life, and even undermines the sustainability of local employment. Therefore, the analysis of post-war environmental economics helps clarify how much of apparent economic growth may actually result from the depletion of natural capital and the transfer of costs to future generations, an issue of particular importance from the perspectives of intergenerational justice and sustainable development.

Problem Statement

Environmental degradation directly affects the productivity of sectors such as agriculture and fisheries, health expenditures, food security, quality of life, and the sustainability of local employment. Therefore, analyzing the post-war environmental economy helps clarify the extent to which apparent economic growth may be driven by the consumption of natural capital and the postponement of environmental costs into the future. This issue is especially important in relation to intergenerational justice and sustainable development. At the same time, Iran has faced extensive environmental challenges in the decades following the war, including water stress, recurrent droughts, dust storms, declining air quality, and increasing pressure on natural resources. These conditions indicate that reconstruction and development in war-affected regions should not be limited to a simple “return to the pre-war situation,” but should instead move toward “resilient reconstruction,” that is, a development model that simultaneously emphasizes the reduction of ecosystem vulnerability, the efficient management of resources, and the mitigation of social and economic risks. Environmental economics provides practical tools, such as the valuation of ecosystem services, cost-benefit analysis that incorporates externalities, and the design of incentive-based policies to reduce pollution and resource overuse, all of which can make reconstruction programs more efficient and sustainable. Ultimately, the need to examine the condition of Iran’s environmental economy after war is not merely a scientific concern, but also a political and strategic necessity, because it is directly linked to food security and public health, the stabilization of population and livelihoods in border areas, the reduction of environmentally induced migration, and the strengthening of the country’s economic resilience. A detailed analysis of this situation can therefore serve as the basis for the formulation of green reconstruction programs, the prioritization of environmental investments, and the adjustment of the development trajectory in a way that aligns economic growth with the protection of natural capital and the long-term interests of society.

Analysis and Key Findings

The first and most visible direct effect of war is the physical destruction of natural ecosystems. Bombardment, the use of munitions and explosives, and heavy military movements transform the landscape, while habitat destruction, biodiversity loss, declining air quality, and contamination of soil and water constitute some of the most destructive environmental consequences of war. The socioeconomic costs of environmental damage caused by war are often concealed in initial assessments, yet in the long run they become enormous. The economic burden imposed by war on the environment is therefore frequently underestimated at the outset, despite its far-reaching implications for sustainable development and human well-being. In this context, the principle of compensation by the polluter represents an important legal foundation for the regulation of post-war relations. Such principles may serve as a basis for compensating environmental damage through oil and gas revenues or international assistance mechanisms.

Policy Recommendations

The analysis indicates that Iran’s deep dependence on oil and gas resources, together with extensive yet weakly regulated state institutions, has created a troubling combination of environmental vulnerabilities. Any future conflict would intensify the pre-existing structural wounds of both the economy and the environment. At the same time, it has been rightly observed that even within crisis, there may exist an opportunity for renewal, provided that the country’s pre-war economic and political structures undergo fundamental reform. To avoid repeating this cycle, Iran must adopt long-term policies capable of gradually freeing the economy from heavy dependence on fossil resources and rent-seeking state structures. Such a transition is essential not only for environmental protection, but also for building a more resilient, equitable, and sustainable post-war development path.