1.Introduction / Context

Armed conflicts generate economic losses that extend beyond deaths, infrastructure destruction, and output disruption. Damage to ecosystems and natural assets can reduce future productive capacity and welfare, yet conventional post-conflict assessments often represent these losses weakly. This article examines war-related environmental damage through the natural-capital depreciation perspective, linking environmental change to ecosystem services, economic costs, and sustainable wealth.

2. Problem Statement

The main analytical problem is the lack of a clear bridge between documented environmental damage in conflict-affected settings and its interpretation as natural-capital depreciation and the loss of future economic benefits. The study asks how wars and regional tensions affect natural capital in the Middle East, through which channels these effects reach the economy, and how environmental governance can reduce persistent losses.

3. Analysis and Key Findings

The study uses an analytical-narrative review with comparative synthesis of regional evidence. Five cases are examined using four common dimensions: conflict-related pressure, affected natural-capital component, economic transmission channel, and longer-term institutional or recovery implication. Natural-capital depreciation is operationalized as a reduction in the quantity or quality of natural assets that lowers future ecosystem services and economic or welfare benefits. The evidence indicates three major transmission channels: lower productive capacity, higher health and welfare costs, and higher or prolonged reconstruction costs. Case heterogeneity prevents aggregation into a single regional monetary estimate. Evidence from Iraq illustrates the scale and persistence of contaminated sites, while recent UNEP assessments of Gaza demonstrate both the breadth of environmental damage and the importance of data limitations in conflict settings. Governance capacity is treated as a moderator because weak monitoring, fragmented responsibilities, and limited enforcement can prolong depreciation.

4. Policy Recommendations

A phased policy roadmap is proposed. In the short term, rapid physical and spatial assessment of natural-capital damage should be conducted. In the medium term, ecosystem extent, condition, and service accounts should be developed within the SEEA Ecosystem Accounting framework. In the longer term, monetary valuation should be undertaken where data permit and natural-capital depreciation should be reflected in wealth and development assessments. For Iran, priority should be given to baseline data, green reconstruction, inter-agency coordination, and diversified financing for verifiable ecosystem recovery.